Currency Currents 3-27-06 2006-03-27T11:30:19+01:00
Let's say Mr. Bernanke raises interest rates again, as expected. And let's say a bunch of people in the market still believe the yield curve means something—and is pointing to recession ahead. And let's say the US gets what it's whishing for, a revaluation of the yuan. They may get even more than that if a yuan revaluation sets the stage for China, Taiwan, Russia, Thailand, and India to take some of Larry Summers advice and reallocate some reserves out of Treasuries into seemingly more efficient uses..

GBP Strengthened by Mortgage Loans 3-27-06 2006-03-27T09:56:50+01:00
The pound strengthened this morning with a strong rise in BBA mortgage approvals data. Loans for home purchases increased by 57,585 from 45,039 in January, expanding 22% from a year earlier. Gross lending was up 18% from last year, at £14 billion. Analysts attribute the gain to seasonal patterns, ensuring healthy mortgage lending in the near term..

Position Liquidation Still a Threat 3-27-06 2006-03-27T09:53:27+01:00
Capital repatriation will remain a very important feature in the short term, but repatriation flows will tend to weaken from the middle of this week given that trades over the second half of this week will be settled in the new fiscal year..

Euro Lackluster on Pause in Confid. 3-27-06 2006-03-27T09:00:20+01:00
In early morning trading, the euro was little changed against the dollar as French business confidence dipped slightly from 106 to 105. The indicator, measuring the sentiment of over 2000 manufacturers, remained at 105 for March. Analysts expect that the recent protests against the new labor law will place pressure on confidence in the months to come..

Weekly Analysis of the Majors 3-27-06 2006-03-27T07:29:24+01:00
You could only love the price action in EUR/USD this week if you were a masochist. The week started by trapping all the euro longs who fell for the false breakout at the 1.2150 level as the pair quickly turned right back to the 1.2000 figure off the firm US PPI figures that had traders thinking Fed might move to 5.25% rates before pausing. The dollar bulls received yet another push higher when Thursday’s Existing Home Sales figures jumped an unexpected 5.2% higher leading everyone to conclude that the US consumer demand remained robust..

Yen Rallies on Growth Optimism 3-27-06 2006-03-27T07:16:11+01:00
In the Asian session, the yen rallied on strong BSI Manufacturing and Industry surveys. Manufacturers continued to express confidence on the world's second largest economy for the third consecutive quarter. Companies have been increasing production facilities on increased domestic and foreign demand for goods..

Volatile Week Ahead! 3-27-06 2006-03-27T06:43:34+01:00
Tuesday FOMC meeting looks to be the USD trigger. USD – Weaker after Friday’s US new home sales. EUR – Building blocks are in place for a higher EURUSD. GBP – Finding downside relief from weaker dollar. CHF – USDCHF, 1.3200-1.2990 range for now. JPY – Lost more than a figure in Asia, support base is now 115.70-00. AUD – broke 0.7050 in Asia! CAD – USDCAD still bullish above 1.1570-1.1610..

USDJPY lower in Asia! 3-27-06 2006-03-27T06:24:49+01:00
USDJPY lost more than a figure overnight and looks set to test base support in the 115.70-00 area in the upcoming week. The FOMC meeting with a an expected 25bps rate hike Tuesday and the post meeting statement seems to be the trigger now if USD weakness is going to kick back in after last week's performance..

Forex Market Summary 3-27-06 2006-03-27T06:11:06+01:00
The recent Dollar strength was halted and sharply reversed on Friday night, after poor new homes sales data. US new homes sales fell by 10.5% to 1.080 million in February, the largest fall in nine years. The market had expected 1.208 million new home sales. New orders for US-made durable goods rose by 2.6% in February, well above the 1.0% increase expected by the market..

Daily FX Technical Strategy 3-27-06 2006-03-27T05:45:31+01:00
The Dollar was sold off to end the week at the 1.2040 – above the 7-day bearish trend-line. Rise to 1.2160 this morning, expect a range-bound day around 1.2040 with 1.2000 bottom and 1.2100 top holding the next 36h, depending on FOMC it should break either side for the next 1-cent move..

Forex Market Issues and Risks 3-27-06 2006-03-27T05:18:32+01:00
The week started with the Dollar shedding 1-YEN in Asia, trading at a low of 116.55. With the Japanese fiscal year ending in March, last minute repatriations may be the reason for the move, meanwhile the drop makes for a near perfect 62% retracement of last weeks ascension..

FX Weekly Outlook CHF AUD NZD 3-25-06 2006-03-25T07:01:39+01:00
Positive dollar data drove up the USDCHF currency pair on the week, leaving Swissie bulls anticipating next week's data. Technically speaking, the price action is approaching a significant resistance level which may provide some additional downward pressure on the pair should near term reports shed positive light on the Swiss economy..

Weekly Currency Wrap-up 3-25-06 2006-03-25T06:51:49+01:00
US interest rate expectations have remained dominant over the past week with significant fluctuations in market sentiment and choppy currency-market moves. Given that US monetary policy is close to a neutral level, the Federal Reserve will inevitably have to take close notice of forthcoming data releases as it attempts to judge the path of growth and inflation..

Weekly Market Update 3-25-06 2006-03-25T06:46:22+01:00
The search for higher yields in the past years has attracted a large inflow of funds from offshore accounts in to New Zealand. However, disappointing data since December 2005 and large bond maturities coming up in the near future, give us reason to believe that other factors such as economic growth and the present out of control current account deficit will play a major role looking forward into the spring of 2006..

Dollar Tumbles as Housing Market Cools Down 3-25-06 2006-03-25T01:21:54+01:00
The housing market is at an interesting juncture where sales of existing homes and sales of new homes are volatile. This week we saw a surprise pick-up in sales of existing homes by 5.2% in February -- following five months of declines -- while today’s data on sales of new homes, also for February, showed a decline of 11%..

FOMC Not the Only Thing on the Calendar Affecting Dollar 3-25-06 2006-03-25T01:13:34+01:00
After four days of persistent strength, the dollar finally gave back some of its impressive gains. Durable goods orders were suppose to be the day’s most market moving piece of data, but instead it was new home sales that sent the dollar tumbling..

Euro Boosted By Inflationary Suggestions 3-25-06 2006-03-25T01:11:42+01:00
Disappointing dollar data spurred buying in the EURUSD major currency pair leading to some imminent spillover into the subsequent crosses. As a result, coupled with a pullback in crude oil contracts, fluctuations to the upside could be seen in the EURCAD cross..

Bears Power Dollar Lower On Housing, Loonie Loses On Crude Pullback 3-24-06 2006-03-24T20:14:41+01:00
Losing against the majors, the U.S. dollar rose only to the Canadian dollar as housing data once again sparked a move in the currency markets. With durable goods orders not providing the expected lift, traders left it up to the month's new home sales figure to rally against the dollar, reversing yesterday's action..

Forex Fundamental Outlook 3-24-06 2006-03-24T15:26:56+01:00
The euro was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.1985 level and was supported around the $1.1950 level. Technically, the common currency stopped just short of testing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2325 to $1.1825. Data released in the U.S. today saw February headline durable goods orders up 2.6% while the ex-transportation component printed at -1.3%. January's tally was upwardly revised to -8.9%..

Majors Quiet, Kiwi Dives 3-24-06 2006-03-24T13:23:56+01:00
The story of the night in the currency market comes from the land of the kiwi where the New Zealand dollar which has been under enormous pressure of late collapsed even further after the country reported the first contraction of its GDP in five years. New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product declined 0.1% from an expected increase of 0.2%..